Coffee Prices UK – An Overview 2026: Why Coffee Is So Expensive

Economic experts agree that the Iran conflict has driven prices for energy to a significant degree which has led to an increase in inflation all across the board across Europe as well as across the United States, and beyond. It is true that the European Central Bank made the explicit case when it raised its interest rate by a whopping 25 basis points on the 11th of June and the same reasoning continues to be heard in all the steps of the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh — former Morgan Stanley banker, Trump’s appointed Fed chair has made it clear at the end of Wednesday’s meeting in which rates remained unaffected The Fed will ensure price stability. That is a means of fighting inflation by raising rates of interest. The irony isn’t lost to anyone. Trump would like lower interest rates to provide the American economy a boost. Warsh has slyly put the expectation aside.

The direction, as it turns out, is as unpredictable in the world of coffee just as in monetary policy. As the consensus became bearish in unison each expert or chart, and every analyst pointed the same direction — the arabica futures at New York executed a hard U-turn. A whopping 7 percent over four trading days in an entire week that was cut short by this holiday on Juneteenth. At the close of Thursday, the July contract was 275.10 C/lb.

What is the reason for the rally?

The first and most important thing is the short-covering fund. The positions were stretched to the short end and when the reverse was announced, it happened quickly. In addition, there was the constant scarcity of stocks that are certified by exchange that have been churning lower for several months. There’s also a growing debate on the market regarding whether capital rotation out of oil after the recent dip in crude is finding a place in the other markets for commodities such as coffee.

Brazil has added a chapter of its own. The persistent rain has impacted harvesting operations in several important agricultural regions. Insufficient water during the harvest season causes quality risks mold and phenol contamination which slows down the process of harvesting. If the conditions remain, shipment times could be delayed, and the availability of premium grades like Strictly Fine, Fine Cups and Good Cups could fall below earlier estimates.

London’s market’s robustity told the same story, but with a slightly slower rate. July 2026 ended the week at $3,640/MT. The.1.3 percent was increased weekly. The intraweek high was when the contract was trading at $3,736/MTthe highest in the past four months.

The US market was closed Friday. There was no market for World Cup fans.

USA America versus Australia group stage host nation versus the underdog. However “host nation” is a somewhat flexible term at this event. This is the first time that in the history of football three countries are sharing the honor -the three – Canada, Mexico, and the United States. In 2002, there were two countries for only the second time (Japan as well as South Korea). In 2030, there could be three continents – Portugal, Spain, and Morocco as hosts of the main tournament and one match in Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay. FIFA refers to it as an anniversary celebration. Others consider it to be a logistical nightmare. In 2034, Saudi Arabia has the rights and, given the current pace of geographic expansion Elon Musk’s proposal for Earth, Moon, and Mars is just an issue of time. Who will supply the coffee there? No idea. After a hot weekend I’m in need of some cold brew. Now!

Ethiopia

Ethiopian citizens have walked to the polls, as elections took place in the country. Elections were suspended in certain areas of the Ethiopian Oromia as well as Amhara regions because of security issues. As of now the result is likely to allow the Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party, who has been in office since the year 2018 for five years, another term in the office.

From weather to politics The weather is being watched across the producing regions which include Sidamo, Yirgacheffe, and Guji. The need for rain is vital to ensure the blooming season is a success for the harvest of 2026/27 which usually begins in October.

The local market for Ethiopia coffee is relatively calm. International demand remains low.

Logistically there are delays because of container shortages both in Djibouti as well as at the dry ports in Addis.

Kenya

The weather conditions across Kenya are getting dry, with just a few showers expected in the regions that produce food, such as Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang’a as well as Kiambu the week of.

In the meantime, the fly crop is growing in a steady manner. Overall, both the volume and the quality of these are likely to remain very high thanks to good weather.

According to the most recent USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report The coffee industry in Kenya is projected to increase by 12% and reach 950,000-60-kilogram bags during the year 2026/27 of market. This growth is attributed to a growth in the areas harvested and improved management of farms after two years of high prices.

Kenya is also working on the expansion of coffee production within regions such as the Central, Eastern, and Rift Valley regions via the government-funded New Kenya Planters Co-operative Union which supplies farmers with fertilizers and seedlings through a revolving fund.

Auctions on the Nairobi Coffee Exchange are currently suspended and will begin in July.

The Port of Mombasa, container shortages are still being reported, leading to massive delays.

Tanzania

Tanzania continues to enjoy dry and sunny weather as the season of harvesting starts, especially in lowland regions where the cherry picking process is already in full swing.

The ripening of the cherry continues in both Arabicaand Robusta-producing regions. It is anticipated that the harvest will peak in July and August.

A slightly higher yield is anticipated this year in each of Arabica and Robusta. This is aided due to favorable weather patterns as well as the rising productivity of freshly established coffee plants. The USDA predicts a growth rate of 10.3 percent, reaching 1.6 millions of 60-pound bags MY 2026/27, an increase by 1.45 million bags in the previous year.

The operations in the Port of Dar es Salaam continue to be carried out in a normal manner.

Uganda

The Ebola spread continues to affect Uganda. Uganda has recently closed its borders with DR Congo. The decision was taken following an increase in cases of virus within Ugandan health professionals who treated Congolese patients.

The outbreak isn’t believed to have a negative impact on coffee harvesting processes or flows of coffee vital since the Robusta harvest is currently underway across Masaka along with those in Western regions. While picking has already begun however, it has been a bit delayed, and is currently about 5 to 6 weeks behind normal timeframe. Despite the delay, nearly 50 percent of this crop has been harvested.

Due to the delay, supplies remain limited, with only a few quantities making it to Kampala. As the flow of coffee remains slow and prices decrease local merchants are wary of offering their goods and are adopting the cautious and prudent route.

Rwanda

Conditions for the weather across Rwanda remain warm and dry, creating perfect conditions for harvesting.

The Rwandan harvest is currently getting closer to completion, with approximately 90% of the cherries harvested. Despite the expected lower volumes this year, and the total yield expected to decrease by 20-30%, the quality of the cherries is positive.