Coffee Market Report 2026 for Brazil and Columbia
Safras & Mercado have estimated that 39% of the new Brazilian coffee crop has been harvested as of 17th June 2026. This year’s harvest is moving slower compared to the same period last year, which was reported at 43%.
Based on their forecast of an upcoming harvest of 75.65 million bags, Arabica production is estimated at 49.95 million bags. This could break the previous record for Arabica production set in 2020/21. It is reported that to date, 29.51 million baggies of new crops have been harvested.
In related news the Brazilian Central Bank reduced their benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points over the course of their June meeting that took place earlier in the week, and is now 14.25 meeting earlier this week, to be 14.25. This is the third straight cut of 25basis points while policymakers continue to maintain a prudent ease cycle, after keeping rates at 15.00 percent through the second quarter of 2025.Although the move shows confidence in gradually reducing borrowing costs, which are nearing two-decade highs, the central bank remains wary of lingering inflationary pressures.
Colombia, the largest producer of premium washed Arabica coffee, produces two crops a year and is currently harvesting the mid-year mitaca crop. The main harvest was less pronounced than usual, partly due to persistent heavy rains. Consequently, the mitaca harvest has progressed slower than expected as residual effects of excessive rainfall continue to impact crop development. This has contributed to an increase in internal prices within the world’s largest washed Arabica-producing nation.
The trade activity in that Central American washed Arabica producing bloc has declined significantly when compared similar to in the year before, with the largest coffees being harvested in the first four or five months of October
2025 through September 2026 in the coffee season is already thought to be in the process of being sold. Honduras is still the largest region in the world. Exporter and producer exporter, with projected exports of approximately 5.50 million baggies, an increase of 15.45 percent year-on-year.
In addition, Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua are expected to maintain moderately stable output, with full-year export performance broadly in line with previous seasons.
Detailed export statistics are not yet available; however, the commercialization of the Central American crop is occurring earlier than usual this year. Producers have benefited from more robust pricing for these new crops compared to New York Arabica prices seen between the final quarter of 2024 and January 2026.
But, there is a lack of visibility for these coffees has been reduced in the consumer market, remains sluggish and suggests that a substantial part of shipments has been committed or directly to roasters, or is making its way through the supply chain.
The appearance of El Nino in the second quarter of 2026 poses an important weather risk to coffee production throughout the South as well as Central America. The past has shown that El Nino conditions are connected with warmer temperatures, prolonged dry spells in areas of Brazil and Central America, and more unpredictable patterns of rainfall that could cause disruption to cherry development and flowering stages. While the precise impact of regional impacts is not known, the market.
The participants are monitoring developments closely. A more powerful El Nino event could reduce potential yields for 2026/27 and 2027/28 coffee crops especially if the deficit in moisture is observed during flowering seasons. In Central America, producers remain at risk of stress from drought and possible productivity loss. This means that Weather-related supply issues will continue to be an important factor in determining prices as well as a reason for increased Market volatility is expected in the coming months.
